It wasn’t the path they wanted to take, but the Cincinnati Reds own a ticket to the dance to take on an Atlanta Braves team that has to be considered a big-time threat to what many assume is the Dodgers’ National League Pennant to lose.
The Reds overcame a slow start that included a 15-20 record at the end of August, going 7-3 over the final 10 games to finish the season two games over the .500 mark despite some terrible luck at the plate (more on that later).
For the Braves, it was more of a direct path to the postseason as they took care of the NL East in straight-forward fashion, finishing four games up on the Miami Marlins of all team while posting a +60 run differential that tied the Tampa Bay Rays for the third-best mark in all of baseball.
That said, let’s dive deeper into this NL Wild Card series while breaking down each club before getting into some predictions on how this series should turn out.
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Reds vs. Braves NL Wild Card Series Preview
Starting Pitching
Reds
Here where the Reds plan to win the series.
The club sports a three-headed monster atop their rotation, one that will begin with Trevor Bauer taking the ball in Thursday’s Game 1 after putting forth a Cy Young-worthy regular season.
Bauer worked to a 1.73 ERA/2.88 fIP in his 11 regular-season starts spanning 73 innings. He racked up punchouts at a 12.33 K/9 clip while issuing free passes just 2.10 times per nine innings. Bauer punctuated his Cy Young candidacy by hurling eight innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts while working on short rest and helping his club punch their ticket to the postseason. It was the second time in three starts he struck out 12 while he posted a double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four outings.
Following Bauer in Friday’s Game 2 will be right-hander Luis Castillo who enjoyed another dominant campaign after establishing himself as one of the better young arms in the game a season ago. Castillo worked to a 3.21 ERA/2.65 FIP/2.82 xFIP this season while setting another career-high with 11.44 K/9 and 0.64 HR/9 in his 12 starts and 70 innings this season. Castillo allowed four earned runs his last time out, but just two earned runs across his previous four starts, posting a 1.29 ERA in that time.
Of course, it will be Sonny Gray if this series requires a deciding third game. Gray was the club’s Opening Day starter and despite an IL stint due to a back strain, the veteran right-hander worked to a 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP/3.19 xFIP this season while also setting a new career-high with 11.57 K/9 and matched his teammate Castillo with a 0.64 HR/9 to boot.
Braves
The Braves haven’t had the best luck within the rotation this season.
They lost elite young right-hander Mike Soroka in just his second start of the season before Mike Foltynewicz was designated for assignment due to poor performance and diminished velocity. If that weren’t bad enough, veteran Cole Hamels – signed to a lucrative one-year deal this past winter – pitched all of 3.1 innings for the Braves due to a triceps injury but was forced back to the DL due to shoulder fatigue and will be lost for the remainder of the season.
Heck, even Game 1 starter Max Fried recently has his own injury scare after leaving his last regular season start after only one inning, but also put forth Cy Young stuff himself this season. Fried posted a 2.25 ERA/3.10 FIP this season while allowing just 0.32 HR/9, tied for the third-best mark in baseball among pitchers that threw at least 50 innings this season.
After that, however, we just don’t know what the Braves will do with their pitching staff, but rather than guess, let’s just say we are going to see a whole bunch of this Braves bullpen in this series.
Offense
Reds
The Reds attempted to bolster their offense in the offseason with the additions of veteran sluggers Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas along with brining Shogo Akiyama overseas from Japan.
Castellanos was an early MVP candidate before cooling off some and Moustakas dealt with injury, but bad luck was the biggest factor in the Reds’ inability to get over the hump at the plate.
For the season, the Reds finished 17th with a .312 wOBA. They hit for plenty of power in the form of a sixth-ranked .191 ISO, but it was their batted-ball luck that hurt the most.
The Reds .245 BABIP on the season was the worst in the league, and it wasn’t even close. The second-worst figure was the Rangers at .266. If that wasn’t bad enough, they sported the lowest batting average on balls in play despite tying for 13th with a 36.9% hard-hit rate, as per Statcast. That just isn’t supposed to happen.
Over a full 162-game season, those are numbers that would almost certainly even out. That said, they rank 29th with a .250 BABIP over the last week and 28th with a .247 mark over the last two weeks. The 60-game regular season was not long enough for the positive batted-ball luck to kick in, and whether a best two-of-three with the Braves is long enough remains to be seen.
Braves
I wrote earlier Wednesday how it will be fascinating to see the elite Cleveland Indians pitching staff go up against the deep and thunderous bats of the New York Yankees. To me, this matchup is quite similar.
While the Reds don’t have the bullpen that Cleveland has, these are three elite-level starters taking on a lineup that had their way – and some – with right-handed pitching this season.
Entering this NL Wild Card series, the Braves ranked first in all of baseball with a .363 wOBA versus right-handed pitching this season, eight points ahead of the second-place Dodgers and their .355 mark.
If that weren’t enough, the Braves were also the second-best home offense in baseball, finishing with a .369 wOBA at SunTrust Park which they made look small more often than not in 2020.
It’s not even that the Braves sport a ton of left-handed hitters as Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies (switch hitter) were the team’s left-handed regulars this season. Players such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson put forth reverse-splits while fellow righties in Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall simply crushed both lefties and righties.
Again, there is going to be some big-time matchups in this series to be sure.
Bullpen
Reds
The Reds would have sailed into the postseason had it not been for some early-season bullpen woes.
From July 24 to August 15, the Reds bullpen put forth a 27th-ranked 6.23 bullpen ERA. From August 15 through the end of the regular season, the Reds ranked eighth with a 3.58 bullpen ERA.
It was a turnaround the team needed while their offense continued to suffer their own bad fortune. Heck, even closer Raisel Iglesias ended up finishing tied for third among all qualified MLB relievers with a 1.1 fWAR on the season with a 2.74 ERA/1.84 FIP in a season that started with a blown save in his first opportunity.
We just don’t know how much of this bullpen we will even see. It would depend on how the Bauer/Castillo/Gray trio fares against this titanic Braves offense, but the team will need their closer to continue to deliver at the back end to ensure whatever lead they might get does not turn the other way in such a short series.
Braves
While the offense will need to support whoever starts after Fried in this series, here’s where I believe the series can be won or lost given the expected heavy usage from this group.
That said, it’s a group that’s been up to the task all season long in a year where the rotation just couldn’t figure itself out, whether injury or performance-related.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos made a conceded effort to build an elite bullpen in the offseason, and he succeeded. He managed to retain recent acquisitions such as Chris Martin and Darren’Day while bringing in former Giants closer Will Smith. Add in fellow back-end arms in Shane Greene and Mark Melancon and the Braves have posted a fourth-ranked 3.50 bullpen ERA this season.
That ERA is backed by a 3.91 FIP, but their 4.41 xFIP slips to 13th. Nonetheless, they ranked ninth with a 2.1 fWAR from their bullpen this season, but they also threw the second-most innings consideration the rotations issues with 272.2 on the season.
Nonetheless, the Braves have proven to be well-equipped to win ball games based on a dominant offense and lights out bullpen, and we’ve seen that strategy succeed before this time of the year.
Reds vs. Braves NL Wild Card Predictions
Reds vs. Braves NL Wild Card Series Odds
- Reds (+116)
- Braves (-136)
When you have such dominant pitching going against the high-octane bats of the Braves, something’s gotta give.
The Reds are more than capable throughout their roster, especially in the starting pitching department where they absolutely have to win this series.
Additionally, while someone has to finish last in BABIP, it probably shouldn’t be a team making harder contact than more than half the league.
The big bats of the Braves are certainly going to present a big challenge, but I think the Reds are built perfectly for this best two-of-three series.
I think it’s time to pick an upset with the Reds.
Reds vs. Braves NL Wild Card Series Total Games
- Over 2.5 (-115)
- Under 2.5 (-115)
Reds vs. Braves NL Wild Card Exact Series Result
- Reds 2-0 (+310)
- Reds 2-1 (+270)
- Braves 2-0 (+225)
- Braves 2-1 (+250)
I can see this one going the distance. I can’t see the Reds getting swept with those two starting pitchers going to be sure, but I don’t think both of them completely solve this Braves offense, either.
I think the Reds win this one, but I believe it goes the distance as I see pitching problems for this Braves team regardless of how good that bullpen has been.
Fried is coming off a shortened start and who knows if his ankle will hold up? After that, it could be a pair of bullpen games at best. Let’s look for the Reds to close this one out in three.