New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, October 9, 2020 – 7:10pm EST ALDS Game 5 – Petco Park
Probable Pitchers:
● Yankees: Gerrit Cole (7-3 2.84 ERA; Postseason: 1-0 3.46 ERA)
● Rays: Tyler Glasnow (5-1 4.08 ERA, Postseason: 1-0 4.91 ERA)
It’s game 5 in the ALDS between the Yankees and the Rays. The Rays will be the home team in this must-win game. The Rays elected to start Tyler Glasnow while the Yankees will send out their ace in Gerrit Cole. Glasnow finished the regular season with a 5-1 record along with a 4.08 ERA. He’s got a very high strikeout rate but will allow walks to get to him along with home runs. Glasnow struggled to get many ground balls this season and allowed a home run on 23.40 percent of fly balls.
Glasnow has allowed six runs in 11 innings in the postseason with nine hits and four walks along with four home runs. He allowed two to the Blue Jays and two to the Yankees in the first game of the ALDS. Glasnow only allowed three hits in five innings and two went over the fence. He also walked three but struck out 10. He’s now walked 18 batters in 11 innings in the postseason.
But knowing that Glasnow has also allowed four home runs in these two postseason games is a bit worrisome. Glasnow will also pitch on four days’ rest. He’ll likely get backed up by the Rays other ace in Blake Snell. But that hasn’t been confirmed. Glasnow has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP on five days rest. But on four days rest, he has a 5.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.
The Yankees have a window to do damage against Glasnow as it doesn’t seem like he recovers quick enough with just four days’ rest. In two games in the postseason, Gerrit Cole has gone 13 innings and struck out 21. However, he’s still allowed 12 hits, two walks and five runs, which mostly came from home runs as he allowed three in those two postseason starts. But what matters most is that the Yankees have won both times he’s pitched just like in Glasnow’s starts.
In Cole’s postseason starts, the Yankees have scored 21 runs and allowed just six. Reports stated that Cole went up to Boone before taking the bus and told him directly to “give me the ball.” If there’s any pitcher you want in baseball to pitch a Game 5, Cole would be on the top of the list. Cole has thrown at least six innings in every game in September and October and has been reliable to go through seven innings many times this season.
What people don’t notice is that Gerrit Cole faced Tyler Glasnow in Game 5 in the ALDS last season. The Astros, where Cole pitched, won 6-1 and scored four runs against Glasnow in the first inning. In that start, Glasnow lasted 2.2 innings and allowed five hits, four runs and three strikeouts. Glasnow has since improved this season but it’s something to really look out for.
The Yankees have the bats to put Glasnow and the Rays away early, especially after looking at Glasnow’s stats when it comes to four days of rest instead of the typical five. Prediction In the playoffs we can use every metric possible. We can research for hours. Yet, that never seems to matter. In times like this one, you have to go with your gut along with the metrics.
Gerrit Cole is the ace pitcher that the Yankees acquired in the offseason. It was for moments like this. For Game 5 in an elimination game. A do or die setting. This is why Cole is a Yankee. Therefore, I’ll roll with the Yankees -.5 in the first five innings. The MLB odds are about a pick-em in this spot as you can find the Yankees at about even odds in the first five innings. When was the last time you could bet on Gerrit Cole in the first five innings at around +100?
MLB Pick: New York Yankees F5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The post MLB Daily Picks: Totals, Run Line, and Moneyline appeared first on Picks.