5 Things to Know When Betting on Sporting Events in Neutral Venues

Sporting events held in neutral venues should give teams an equal chance to win. But often, home-field or court advantage will still exist.

Most neutral-site games are also held at least two weeks after teams last played, so you can expect rust. And even with a game in a neutral setting, it shouldn’t tilt the point spread too far in favor or against specific teams.

Let’s take a closer look at each factor individually.

1. Home-Field Advantage Exists

While this isn’t always the case, you can place a safe bet that if a game held in a neutral site pits someone like the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Carolina Panthers in a Super Bowl held in Minneapolis, the former will hold a clear advantage.

Or if the Arizona Cardinals are playing the Buffalo Bills in Los Angeles, the former will probably see a larger turnout. The same goes for the latter if they play the game on the East Coast.

So, even when they hold a game at a neutral site to try to balance things out, don’t expect too much unless we are playing games behind closed doors or with just a select number of fans. Then, you can probably make an exception.

Another exception is likely if the two teams have equally rabid fan bases or vice versa. 

Just look at the most recent Super Bowl games and you will see a discrepancy in fan turnout even if the two teams are from opposite ends of the US and playing the Super Bowl at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

With that said, don’t post a bet until you analyze the fan bases for the opposing teams. Sometimes, you may see or expect an equal turnout of fans, even neutral fans. But if a storied franchise with a historic fan base is playing one with relatively little success, expect the former to sell out the venue.

Yes. But again, just play those old Super Bowls and they will often tell you everything you need to know.

2. Jet Lag Not a Concern

Never worry about jet lag when they hold games at a neutral site. The only time this would ever be a concern would be if they moved a game to a neutral site without prior notice, such as in an emergency or impromptu situation.

However, for games like the Super Bowl, playoff bubbles (if applicable), college bowl games, March Madness, the College World Series, etc., jet lag or resetting the body clock shouldn’t be a concern.

In terms of March Madness, teams often play in a specific region. So long as a team remains in the tournament, there is little if any migration between major time zones.

And they often hold college bowl games in the same regard as the Super Bowl, with teams arriving at the location with enough time to reset the body clock.

3. Weather Can Be a Concern

It really isn’t fair, but it is what it is.

Some neutral locations don’t have retractable roofs and the NFL even experimented with hosting a Super Bowl in cold-weather New York’s (East Rutherford, New Jersey’s) MetLife Stadium for Super Bowl XLVIII in which the Seattle Seahawks beat former AFC West rival Denver Broncos, 43 to 8.

While Seattle and Denver both play in cooler climates, the weather would have been more of a factor had Denver played the warm-weather and controlled-climate New Orleans Saints, who lost to Seattle during the NFC Divisional Playoffs.

During most Super Bowls, you will see either fair weather in a warm-weather climate or if weather is inclement, you should see a roof close if applicable. The same goes for college football bowls.

But every once in a while, rain hits, wind can be a factor, and in rare cases, snow can be a problem. So while it sounds redundant, check the conditions before placing a bet. They can and they will influence a game.

And the lesser-talented team could thrive if they are used to swirling winds or pouring rain.

4. You Can Expect Rust

Since most games held in neutral sites are held two or more weeks after the conclusion of the previous games in many situations, expect rust from even the best teams. Sure, they will often continue to practice, but the downside is the fact that these teams haven’t seen live game situations.

In the college football realm, this can last for over a month. Especially for those teams looking to contend for a national title.

While this may or may not affect the spread (see next subheading), it can definitely give you headaches via player props even if you bet that Patrick Mahomes would surpass 400 passing yards and 3.5 touchdown passes. But you get the gist of it.

While things may even out later in the game as they often do, betting the over on props in the first half or even the first quarter or two may not be a wise choice—unless you decide to bet the under.

The same goes for college football bowl games since as mentioned, they are out of game action for an even longer duration.

And that is assuming there is no four-month stoppage in play. If there is, then apply the same tactics as you would with the Super Bowl and college bowl games in football. Expect rust early on, then expect to see it even out later. And it could affect your player prop bets.

5 – Expect Rusty Over/Unders Early and Normal Point Spreads

This one is specifically for you if you are betting on spreads and over/unders in the Super Bowl.

The only time it’s wise to expect a variation in the potential spread would come during the so-called “rusty” periods in the first quarter or two. The best strategy to employ for the game spread is to make your wager the way you normally would throughout the regular and post-season. Don’t change anything.

Now, if you are betting on the over-under or point spreads by the quarter or the half, it would be wise to look at previous Super Bowls and collegiate bowl games and look for a pattern.

If you look at recent Super Bowls, you will find at least one team shut out in the first quarter of the Super Bowl between Super Bowls XLVIII and Super Bowl LI. And in two of those Super Bowls, the first quarter ended with a 0-0 deadlock.

Super Bowls LIV and LIII featured more offense in the second half of the game, and in Super Bowls LI and LII, one team scored the bulk of their offensive points in the second half.

Teams often start off rusty, sometimes, with a shutout to begin the first quarter. Most of the scoring has come in the second half, and with most teams over the past five Super Bowls, the fourth quarter has seen the highest amount of action.

Starting with Super Bowl 50, both Denver and Carolina combined for 11 fourth-quarter points, the most in that respective game. In Super Bowl LIII, the total was 10 points. And in Super Bowl LIV, that total was 21.

In Super Bowl LIV, the total was 10 points for the first, second, and third quarters, with the Kansas City Chiefs more than doubling the point total. And in Super Bowl LI, 19 total points were scored in the fourth, taking second place (Atlanta and New England combined for 24 points in the second quarter). Only Super Bowl LII was the exception.

In fact, you would need to go all the way back to Super Bowl 50 for the first quarter to have not finished fourth or tied for last in the combined points total.

Conclusion 

So, when betting on games held in neutral spots, always remember that home-field advantage is still a thing. Especially if one of the competitors boasts a large fan base. This is normal among teams who are historically successful.

Expect rust early from players if you bet on player props. And if you are betting on spreads and over/unders at online sportsbooks, changing your strategy is a risk with the spread. But you can sense a pattern with quarter-by-quarter over/unders in the Super Bowl.