Alex Wong/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden
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2020 Election Odds
2020 Election Day Odds Updates
11:45 a.m. ET
After a volatile morning of election odds movement, the market appears to have stabilize back where it started the day:
- Joe Biden -227 (66.7%)
- Donald Trump +188 (33.3%)
It’s hardly a surprise to see stability return to a race that has been defined by it. Contrary to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, we really haven’t seen any major odds shifts in the past month-plus.
At Betfair, Trump has never had more than a 40% chance to win since the calendar turned to October.
10:20 a.m. ET
Joe Biden is clearly taking some bets this morning in Europe. After his odds bottomed out at -175 (61.4% chance) at 8 a.m., he’s fully recovered back to his high of -227 (66.7% chance) as of 10:20 a.m. ET.
Donald Trump’s odds, meanwhile, have dropped from 38.6% (+150) this morning to 33.3% (+188) now.
10:00 a.m. ET
Joe Biden’s odds to win the Presidency are officially back on the rise. After Biden had maintained a healthy 67-33 lead for much of the past week, the betting market shifted to 61-39 early Tuesday morning, but the latest odds reflect some regression for Trump:
- Joe Biden -200 (64.7% chance)
- Donald Trump +175 (35.3% chance)
Even with his odds regressing a bit, it’s important to point out that the betting market is much more bullish on Trump’s chances of winning a second term than pretty much every predictive model that’s based on polling data. For example, the 538 forecast closed with Biden having an 89% chance to win, compared a 10% chance for Trump (they had an Electoral College tie as a 1% possibility).
9 a.m. ET
Back and forth we go. After an early morning odds shift toward President Donald Trump, the market has corrected a bit, boosting Joe Biden’s chances slightly.
The current odds:
- Joe Biden -188 (63.2% chance)
- Donald Trump +163 (36.7% chance)
While this is nearly a 2% bump for Biden compared to what we saw at 8 a.m. ET, it’s still down from his numbers at midnight this morning (-227 odds, 66.6% chance).
Trump’s odds to win are up nearly 3.5% since midnight, moving from a 33.3% chance to win to a 36.7% chance.
8 a.m. ET
The polls have opened an many states, but the odds to win the presidency have remained stable since our 2 a.m. check-in:
- Joe Biden -175 (61.4% chance)
- Donald Trump +150 (38.6% chance)
It’s worth noting that these odds did see a pretty sizable shift in between midnight ET and 2 a.m. Biden had been -227 (66.6%), compared to +188 (33.3%) for Trump as the clock shifted to Election Day on the East coast of the U.S.
Trump’s current 38.6% chance to win are his best odds in more than a month.
2 a.m. ET
Election Day is finally here.
We’ve been tracking the odds since March — when former Vice President Joe Biden first emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee to challenge President Donald Trump.
Now, we’ll be tracking how the odds shift between now and when the results are final.
For those of you who are just now tuning into the election betting market, here’s a quick overview of how the odds have evolved over the past nine months:
- March 4 (post-Super Tuesday): Trump 53.9%; Biden 40%
- March 18 (after first ‘shelter in place’ order): Trump 44.5%; Biden 44.5%
- April 13 (five days after Bernie Sanders drops out): Trump 50.5%; Biden 42%
- June 2 (10 days after George Floyd’s death): Trump 43%; Biden 47.3%
- June 30 (end of fiscal Q2): Trump 33%; Biden 59.2%
- July 15 (Kanye West ends presidential bid): Trump 34.7%; Biden 58.2%
- Aug. 17 (Kamala Harris joins Biden’s ticket): Trump 39.3%; Biden 54.1%
- Aug. 28 (post-Republican National Convention): Trump 45.4%; Biden 49.6%
- Sept. 29 (post-first debate): Trump 39.4%; Biden 61.73%
- Oct. 22 (post-second debate): Trump 33.5%; Biden 65.2%
We’ve tracked a lot more movement than those 10 key points (you can parse through the full snapshot here).
Check back throughout Tuesday — and until the race is called — for more updates on how the betting market is projecting the results.
11:30 p.m. ET, Monday
Biden has exactly a two-thirds chance of winning the White House, according to the latest odds (-227), with Trump coming in at +188 odds (33.3% chance).
These are unchanged from earlier on Monday and virtually unchanged from what we’ve seen in the market since last Thursday. Biden’s 66.6% chance is tied for the highest odds he has seen the past week, while Trump peaked at 34.4% on Oct. 31.
2020 Election Day Odds Tracker
We’ll update this tracker with the odds throughout the day on Nov. 3 until results are final.
Swing State Election Odds & Predictions
Heading into Election Day, there are eight states in which one of the two candidates is favored by only -333 (76.9% implied probability) or less: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In other words, those are the eight closest state races according to the betting market.
We’ll be tracking the odds in those individual states, as well, with our Swing State Tracker.
