2020-21 Winnipeg Jets Season Preview, Odds & Predictions

The 2019-20 version of the Winnipeg Jets certainly didn’t resemble the high-octane group from season’s past.

However, it was a mix of bad luck and cap issues that hurt them in the end. The back luck came both on the injury front where the lost the second-most man games to injury while they were also blindsided by Dustin Byfuglien’s decision to not show up to training camp and later undergo ankle surgery that was not team-approved.

In turn, the team ran into cap issues. Byfuglien’s hefty $8M cap hit could have been used to re-sign Tyler Myers or Ben Chiarot, or perhaps avoid trading Jacob Trouba to the New York Rangers. Instead, the Jets played last season without four of their time five defenders from their stout blueline of 2018-19.

As a result, the team posted some brutal puck-possession numbers that ended up hurting their offensive game in the end as they were not the same deadly offensive group that we’ve seen in the past.

Prior to the halt in the regular season, the Jets were miraculously on the playoff bubble, but ended up getting into the league’s 24-team postseason format. However, that berth was short-lived as injuries to both Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine did them no favors en route to a four-game qualifying-round loss to the Calgary Flames.

Is improvement on the horizon or is it going to be another disappointing campaign in northern Manitoba? Let’s find out as we dive into the 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets, their season preview and odds before getting into some year-end predictions for Paul Maurice’s club.

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline
**Salary cap figures courtesy of CapFriendly
***Advanced data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick

2020-21 Winnipeg Jets Season Preview & Odds

• Last Season: 37-28-6 (5th in Central Division)
• Key Additions: C Paul Stastny, D Derek Forbort, C Nate Thompson
• Projected Salary Cap Space: $0 (Currently $697,856 over the cap)
• 2021 Stanley Cup Odds: +3300

*Due to the likelihood of an All-Canadian Division that would include the Jets, current conference odds are unavailable)

Offense

Going into the Bell MTS Place used to be one of the most difficult building to win in, primarily because the Jets would simply blow you away on offense. As recently as the 2018-19 season, the Jets ranked third in home offense and seventh in overall offense.

Last season, however, the team struggled mightily to score consistently, especially at home. Last season, Winnipeg ranked 23rd in home offense and 17th in overall offense. Indeed, the were able to generate more goals per game on the road (3.12) than at home (2.89). As a result, their home-ice advantage deteriorated a season ago.

Not helping matters was the loss of second-line center Bryan Little who was struck in the head by a teammate’s slapshot in a Nov. 5 contest against the New Jersey Devils and never returned in the 2019-20 season. As of now, Little’s career appears to be in jeopardy as general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said doctors have suggested Little not play this upcoming season. Little’s $5.291 cap hit this season is bound for long-term injured reserve as a result, which will afford the Jets more cap space.

The team once again filled that second-line center role with veteran Paul Stastny whom the club acquired at the 2018 trade deadline for their postseason run. Stastny spent 19 regular-season games with the Jets that season, tallying 13 points before recording another 15 in 17 postseason games as the Jets marched their way to the Western Conference Final.

After months of trade rumors, it appears sniper Patrik Laine will indeed remain with the team for this season, and it will once again be up to he, Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers to provide the bulk of offense alongside Stastny in the club’s top-six forward group.

Been a while since I did one of these, so here’s a 2 minute reel of Patrik Laine scoring ridiculous goals and making it look very easy pic.twitter.com/xWEbbb9fIC

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 16, 2020

It’s certainly a quality group and one that should be able to bounce back, if healthy, but it will depend on whether they are able to attack more next season.

At 5v5 last season, the Jets ranked 25th in shots for per 60 minutes, 28th in scoring chances for/60 and 30th in high-danger chances for/60. As a result, they also ranked 30th in expected goals for/60. Certainly not what we expected from a team that lit the lamp at will in previous years.

That said, as bad as the even-strength offense was, the Jets also regressed on the power play, ranking 15th with a 20.5% clip a season after finishing fourth with a sturdy 24.8% mark.

When it comes to the 5v5 offense, as the old saying goes, a quality offense starts with a good…

Defense

As noted in the opening, the Jets’ blueline was decimated in both the free-agent and trade market and whatever you want to call the situation that surrounded Byfuglien’s year-long absence.

One positive was the play of Neal Pionk, the main NHL-ready piece acquired from the Rangers in exchange for Trouba. It never seemed as if the Jets and Trouba were ever going to agree on a restricted free agent contract after struggling to do so previously, and Cheveldayoff did veyr well to nab Pionk who tallied six goals and 45 points in 71 games, but also 25 power play points that placed him in a third-place tie with the Canucks’ Quinn Hughes among defensemen. Not bad for a player playing his second full NHL campaign.

Neal Pionk (@NPionk95) gets the opening goal on @scotiabank #HockeyDay in Canada! pic.twitter.com/wFOB2KiayR

— NHL (@NHL) February 8, 2020

Josh Morrissey is an underrated defender on the top pair and the Jets re-signed Dylan Demelo to a four-year deal after acquiring him from the Senators at the trade deadline. After the Pionk/Morrissey/Demelo trio, however, it’s slim pickens.

The newcomer Derek Forbort along with Nathan Beaulieu and Tucker Poolman represent the club’s bottom three defenders, and none have been even an average defenseman to this point in their careers.

I would suggest this is an improved group with a full season of Demelo as he should log notable minutes in a top-four role, however on the whole it’s an underwhelming group.

Besides, it wouldn’t be difficult to improve on last season’s numbers.

At 5v5 action, the Jets ranked 26th in shots against/60, 24th in scoring chances against/60 and 30th in high-danger chances against/60. Their final expected goals against/60 ranked 29th.

Not helping their cause was a penalty kill that ranked 22nd with a 77.6% mark, but that Jets blueline from last season was simply unable to prevent shots and scoring chances and were certainly unable to break the puck out to their forwards whose production suffered as a result.

Getting out of your own zone and advancing the puck is essential to generating offense, and the Jets’ blueline of last season just could not get that job done.

The best part of all of this, somehow, and I mean somehow, the Jets finished 10th with just 2.83 goals per game last season. However, it was completely and utterly do to their…

Goaltending

Some thought Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck deserved a Hart Trophy nomination, and for good reason. I mean, he ended up capturing the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender, and it’s hard to argue with that result.

Of course, the Jets’ defense metrics and scoring chance share were brutal last season, but they managed a top-10 defense solely because of Hellebuyck.

While tying Carey Price for the league lead with 58 appearances, Hellebuyck worked to a 2.57 GAA and .922 Sv%, going 31-21-5 in the process. His GAA ranked 11th and his save percentage fifth, but considering the group playing in front of him, it’s nearly impossible to state he wasn’t one of the most valuable players to his team last season – the league’s definition of MVP.

Nonetheless, that’s two elite seasons from Hellebuyck out of the last three. He posted a 2.36 GAA and .924 Sv% three seasons ago, but regressed to a 2.90 GAA and .913 Sv% in the 2018-19 season before lightning the league on fire last season.

At the end of the day, the Jets are in fantastic hands with the 27-year-old.

28 shots and 28 saves calls for a @pepsi shutout for Connor Hellebuyck as he leads his @NHLJets to victory. pic.twitter.com/nvyDPXXm5j

— NHL (@NHL) October 21, 2019

The Jets finished in a four-way tie for fourth place with a .913 Sv% from their goaltending last season, but considering Hellebuyck’s .922 mark in a heavy workload, it means backup Laurent Brossoit was pretty bad in his limited work.

Brossoit turned in a lacklustre 3.28 GAA and .895 Sv% in his 15 starts and 19 appearances a season ago. Not only was that a disappointing result, it was an even tougher pill to swallow after Brossoit posted a fantastic 2.52 GAA and .925 Sv% across 21 appearance the season prior. Brossoit has been quite Jekyll and Hyde in his 68 career NHL games to this point, and the club will certainly be hoping for a rebound in what is a contract year upcoming for the 27-year-old.

In what is going to be a condensed schedule, teams are going to need both of their netminders. Plenty of back-to-backs and three-in-four-nights are on the horizon and it should be the year of the goaltender tandem more than ever. A Brossoit rebound is of significant importance.

At the end of the day, however, the Jets certainly have one of the best netminders on the planet wearing their uniform.

2020-21 Winnipeg Jets Predictions

As noted, an All-Canadian Division is looking increasingly likely, meaning the Jets could spend their season competing exclusively against the Canucks, Flames, Oilers, Maple Leafs, Canadiens and Senators. The Sens are in a rebuilt, but that doesn’t make them a tough out while the remaining five opponents all boast postseason aspirations.

Having Hellebuyck is a blessing and while some felt Paul Maurice deserved the Jack Adams Award – and he did a great job – the real reason why the Jets even sniffed the postseason was the work of their No.1 netminder.

It would appear he needs to be close to, or as good as he was last season.

I’m a fan of the team’s top-six, a group that can go up against any other in the league, but it’s everything else I am struggling with. They didn’t get much support from their bottom six, and I’ve mentioned several times as to why.

The blueline is improved some, but it’s not a quality group in the grand scheme of things, at least not compared to their peers across the league. The silver lining is that the aforementioned Canadian opponents don’t exactly spot top-of-the-line defensive units themselves. In other words, it look’s like they’ll be avoiding the elite defenses of the Dallas Stars and St. Louis Blues in the Central Division while the Minnesota Wild actually posted the best defensive metrics in hockey last season, but just couldn’t get any goaltending. The names on the Nashville Predators’ blueline remain stout as well, including 2020 Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi.

The league has not yet announced a playoff structure in what will be a realigned, unique season. Therefore it’s tough to predict exactly where the Jets will land when it comes to the playoff picture.

I’ll venture another bubble playoff season for the Jets, but I’ll also assure you that Hellebuyck needs to be the best version of himself for Winnipeg to avoid another disappointing season-ending result.