Each decade boasts star quarterbacks and coaches you just don’t bet against. Why? Because at least 80% of the time, your bets against them are futile. Some quarterbacks who were bad ideas to wager against during the 2010s were players like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees.
I’m sure we can label coaches like Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, and Mike Tomlin into this mix as well. And you’ll see some old faces from the last decade in the list below. But you’ll also see a half-dozen newbies in the top 10. Let’s discuss these coaches and QBs that are better to wager for than against at NFL betting sites.
1. Mike Vrabel
This time last year, Vrabel wouldn’t be making this list. But fast forward to 2020, and you have a coach who may just become the NFL’s next Bill Belichick. Lofty expectations? Yes. Farfetched? Not really.
Vrabel went 9-7 during his first two seasons at the helm for the Tennessee Titans. It’s an average record when you look at the surface area.
But when you consider his upset against Lamar Jackson and the supposedly unstoppable Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 divisional playoffs, the legend was born—as was the NFL’s next great system that brings out the best in players.
Is it any coincidence Vrabel played for Belichick at one time? As I write this article, Vrabel’s Titans are 5-0 and enter a showdown with Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers. By the time you read this article, they will have completed the game. If Vrabel’s Titans won, then I rest my case.
But speaking of Tomlin, let’s talk about him.
2. Mike Tomlin
Do you even place a wager when Vrabel’s Titans meet Tomlin’s Steelers? I wouldn’t, because there is no surefire favorite to win here. When you read this article, we will all have watched a game that resembled a classic heavyweight fight resembling the old Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Oilers rivalry.
But in most other games, you don’t bet against Tomlin. And he’s proving it once again in 2020, coming off a convincing win against an upstart Cleveland Browns team. We all heard about it from the critics: The Steelers have beaten no one.
Well, they just beat the most talented Cleveland Browns team since the latter returned to the league in 1999. They didn’t just beat them; they manhandled them. And even when Tomlin is without a star player or two, he finds ways to win.
Look for him to continue coaching throughout the decade and look for his Steelers to keep winning and doing so in dramatic fashion.
3. Russell Wilson
Yep, it’s safe to wager Wilson will still be a Seahawk (or at least in the NFL) if you read this article come 2030. He’ll be in his 19th season, which isn’t exactly uncommon among quarterbacks these days.
And while Wilson’s Seahawks haven’t been to the Super Bowl in almost a decade, he continues to win, win, and win some more. The guy has yet to finish worse than second in the NFC West, and he’s never experienced a losing season.
Look at the last two seasons: Wilson excels in winning close contests. That’s the telltale sign of a quarterback you’re better off betting in favor of.
One week before this page was written, the guy completed one of the most epic comebacks of his career against Minnesota. He may be 32, but he has a lot of good football left and a lot of years left where you’d be wise to bet for rather than against him.
4. Kyle Shanahan
Yeah, yeah, Shanahan’s 49ers are once again dwelling in mediocrity. But considering all the injuries the 2020 Niners experienced, Shanahan has this team contending after playing three different quarterbacks, losing his two best defensive linemen, and watching XFL talent grace the receiving unit.
Let me ask you this, would Adam Gase be 3-3? Joe Judge? Mike McCarthy? Matt Patricia? Of course not. And it’s what separates a Shanahan-led team from most NFL head coaches. Expect him to stick around and to keep his 49ers in contention for the next few seasons. And they just might party like it’s 1989 all over again.
5. Justin Herbert
Herbert may be a rookie playing a 1-4 Los Angeles Chargers team known for blowing games since the beginning of 2019. But that doesn’t mean he’s one to bet against throughout the decade. For one, the guy will probably set several single-season records for an NFL rookie if he keeps up this pace.
It should foreshadow what’s coming. Everyone and their mother said he’d face a learning curve and struggle early, myself included. Herbert just proved everyone in the vicinity wrong and he’s looking good doing it. So, he’s already proving it’s foolish to bet against him.
And with the surrounding talent in Los Angeles, expect Herbert to become the team’s next Drew Brees rather than Ryan Leaf. But there’s one major difference: The Chargers aren’t making the mistake of letting the guy go this time around.
So, don’t make the mistake on betting against an LA Chargers team led by Herbert throughout the decade. He also nearly upset Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs in his NFL debut. Look for some classic battles between those two.
6. Matt LaFleur
Yeah, some of you may second-guess LaFleur after Tom Brady’s Bucs just smashed his Green Bay Packers. You can even point to the 2019 NFC Championship. Hey, it’s two games and even if this article is about coaches and quarterbacks to never bet against, we all have bad games.
It’s called being in the NFL, where nothing comes easy. With that said, LaFleur already has a dynamic passer in Aaron Rodgers who, after three seasons of declining statistics, is having a career renaissance.
And he’s got a solid heir to the throne waiting in the wings, just as Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre early in his career.
Oh, and he finished 13-3 in his first season as a head coach.
7. Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is playing for arguably the NFL’s least successful franchise—the Arizona Cardinals. But man, you have to love his head coach and the dynamic weapons around him, starting with receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
With the surrounding talent on offense, expect Murray to take full advantage during his formative years in the league.
As his career matures, expect Russell Wilson type of playmaking, where he’ll elevate talent around him and turn the Cardinals into annual contenders.
So, yes, the Arizona Cardinals will contend for as long as Murray lines up under center.
8. Bill Belichick
If he retires before the end of the decade, insert one of his sons in this column or a trusted successor like Josh McDaniels. Belichick may face a lean year without Tom Brady and a series of unfortunate events that are keeping his Patriots from practicing. But in normal times, Belichick isn’t one to bet against. Ever. Even if he loses a Super Bowl or AFC Championship Game or two. Or even in a year like 2020, where his Patriots are losing more than they win. Lean seasons happen.
But with his systems in place, don’t expect to suddenly believe betting against Belichick’s Patriots is a good idea. Some of you say it was Brady. Don’t be foolish. Belichick won several times without Brady, including an 11-win season in 2008.
9. Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes’ record speaks for itself, with many stating the NFL is living in Patrick Mahomes’ world. While we won’t christen him a Hall of Famer yet, we can safely bet it’s unsafe to ever bet against Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.
Yeah, he’ll lose some football games as had happened the week before I penned this article. But let’s be honest, unless you have fortune telling powers, you don’t know when Mahomes and his Chiefs will occasionally find themselves out-dueled at Arrowhead.
You don’t know when the team will experience the inevitable lean year, as all great quarterbacks and their teams will.
Stay safe, and just bet on Mahomes and company to win, because 65% to 75% of the time, he will win. And he will produce solid numbers doing so.
10. Dak Prescott
Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury, so his season is over as of 2020. But you can bet on a few things to happen here: Prescott will return from his injury greater and more formidable than ever before. Ain’t that becoming the norm these days?
Never forget that Prescott had arguably the greatest first five games of any quarterback in NFL history before his injury. And with a solid few counting Prescott out, expect him to return with a chip on his shoulder.
The man will be on a mission to prove himself after many thought his career may end after we all saw the odd angle in which his lower leg stuck out at that fateful game against the New York Giants.
Prescott has guaranteed he’ll be back better than ever, and we must go so far as to believe him. Plus, as bleak as the NFC East has looked since 2019, Prescott and his Cowboys can take control of the division.
Just Missed the Cut
Lamar Jackson is one player who I have a hard time believing in. While he and his Ravens are still winning, they aren’t the same force they were in 2019. Expect further dips as defenses continue to exploit his and the Ravens offense’s weaknesses.
Josh Allen has broken out but still displays plenty of vulnerability. Until he proves otherwise, and quarterbacks of his playing style historically find themselves with up-and-down careers and winning percentages, seasons like 2019 and 2020 may be outliers.
Conclusion
Each decade, you’ll find players out there who you’re better off to refrain from betting against at online sportsbooks.
Either these players find ways to continually win or they always outperform their given player props.
We can name players who would have been foolish to bet against in the 2010s.
Do yourself a favor and place the safe bet either by staying away from the NFL’s brass for the upcoming decade or to bet conservatively.
Now, if you bet on the edge, feel free to perhaps give it a shot to mix things up. But beware, because these are hard bets to win.
Which players are on your list to never bet against? Let us know in the comments.